Crop yield responses to temperature and rainfall variability in Bolero, Malawi.

Abstract

Intensity and distribution of rainfall and temperature affect crop yield output as such households dependent on rain fed agriculture are more vulnerable to climate change and variability. It is impossible to influence climate patterns but understanding nature of temperature and rainfall variability equips farmers to plan ahead and adapt accordingly. A study was conducted in Bolero, Malawi, to analyze rainfall and temperature trends, examine the relationship with four main food crops (maize, cassava, millet and groundnuts) and characterize farming practices. Sixty years rainfall data, 32 years temperature data, 18 years crop production data and 120 household responses were gathered. Parametric and non-parametric tests done were; descriptive, correlation, regression, t-test, Mann-Kendall and chi-square. Results revealed a significant increase in temperature trend and a reduction of rainfall by 84.65mm between 1954 and 2013, pointing towards a decreasing rainfall trend. Total annual rainfall has minimal influence on crop yield as compared to monthly rainfall variations. Ground nuts and maize are more sensitive to climate variability as compared to cassava and millet. The increasing temperature trend displayed potential of reducing land productivity. However, there are opportunities for transforming food production and these include; most farmers own land for cultivation which favors adoption of conservation agriculture and agroforestry, farmers are aware that cassava and millet are more resilient, interventions may only focus on attitude change towards cassava and millet as staple food, provision of seasonal weather forecasts and strengthening local seed systems. Crop diversification should be promoted to spread climate risk at farm level and promote nutrition and income source diversity.