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Forecasting Climate Change Pattern for Bolero Agriculture Extension Planning Area in Malawi

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dc.contributor.author Singini, Wales
dc.contributor.author Tembo, Mavuto
dc.contributor.author Banda, Chikondi
dc.date.accessioned 2022-12-08T20:05:48Z
dc.date.available 2022-12-08T20:05:48Z
dc.date.issued 2015
dc.identifier.citation Singini, W., Tembo, M. & Banda, C. (2015). Forecasting Climate Change Pattern for Bolero Agriculture Extension Planning Area in Malawi. Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting, 3(3). 1-5. https://bit.ly/3IfUgvE en_US
dc.identifier.issn 2332-2594
dc.identifier.uri https://bit.ly/3IfUgvE
dc.identifier.uri http://repository.mzuni.ac.mw/handle/123456789/422
dc.description.abstract Bolero community in Malawi, like most rural communities in Sub-Saharan Africa, is very vulnerable to climate variability and change because of its reliance on local biological diversity, ecosystem services, cultural and religious landscapes as source of sustenance and well-being. For this reason, a study was conducted to forecast climate change pattern for Bolero Agriculture Extension Planning Area based on temperature data from 1982 to 2013 in order to inform the policy makers and community on the future prospects of climate change and its effects. The data was collected by Malawi Government Department of Meteorology and Climate Change at Bolero weather station using fixed temperature recording thermometer. The study used Univariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average to model and forecast temperature variability. Based on ARIMA and its components autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, Normalized Bayesian Information Criterion, Box-Ljung Q statistics and residuals estimated, ARIMA (1,1,3) was selected for the maximum temperature data which helped in explaining the temperature time series and forecasting the future values. From the forecast available from the fitted ARIMA model, it is concluded that forecasted maximum temperature will increase by 1.6°C from 27.7°C in 1982 to 29.3°C in 2030. The temperature increase suggests that climate change could continue to negatively impact on agricultural livelihood options in Bolero community and this call for increased adaptive capacity for the community. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher OMICS International en_US
dc.subject Forecasting en_US
dc.subject Climate change en_US
dc.subject Adaptation en_US
dc.subject stochastic en_US
dc.title Forecasting Climate Change Pattern for Bolero Agriculture Extension Planning Area in Malawi en_US
dc.type Article en_US


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